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dan45mcc

Commodities Market , Corn , Crude ,Livestock etc..

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I'm hoping it dosent go too low (gas and ethanol)..UNLESS the price spreads at the retail level continue to expand..With cheap oil/Gasoline again thats when people lose focus and don't look at alternatives like E85.

 

The only way to counter cheap gasoline is to have REALLY cheap E85..will ethanol this time around forgo quick profits (larger margins) in exchange for greater Market Share ? Is it possible for them to think beyond the next Quarter?

 

Didn't sell ..because I didn't buy ;)  I do own a few Ethanol Stocks and looking to add to those positions while everything is cheap

 

Dan wrote

Yep it's going to what $8.50  range ?

I sure hope you sold some because you'd look pretty good now. :)

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Frankly this market crash is good for no one - maybe the livestock/ food producers and maybe the consumer in the short run BUT this stops ALL investments in tomorrow's alt fuels and even oil. It will affect next year's crop plantings if corn, bean, wheat, etc stays down and producers cannot obtain financing for planting. In the long run a correction was needed but if anyone thought that it was tough before- well -it is about to get worse. I hope fertilizer and land rents respond to this market so at least the farmer sees some balance in this.

 

One has to wonder if the windmill guys are insulated from this on existing sites - i would be suprised to see electric rates drop for months- -sort of the same thing as we will see in the groceries - status quo.

 

Since we are making well over a billion more gallons of corn ethanol than when the food/fuel argument began in earnest---does anyone still dare stand up and say "ethanol drives up food prices" ? -- well the beef guys in Arizona want to have their gov'nor file for repeal of the RFS just the other day >:(  "Well excuse me", who ever thought it would be a good idea to raise cattle where they have a rapidly falling water table for several years and cannot grow forage or corn to feed 'em??? >:(  Like I said before- the corn price run up before was speculator, value of the dollar relative to world, and Asian economy/diet changes. Corn ethanol is more of a local basis (local spot vs CBOT) changer than overall price driver and will remain so until corn ethanol production reaches the 15 billion mark (even then maybe not if variety improvements keeps boosting yields).

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Dan wrote

Didn't sell ..because I didn't buy

On the CBOT, you can sell first and then buy back to make a profit or loss. I sold some wheat for Dec 2010 a while back that looks good now---just have to figure out when to buy back and not get too greedy. If I don't goof up, I'm going to use that to counter a corn sale at the local elevator for $3.56 that doesn't look too good. :)

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Short Selling..No Thanks ..

Dan wrote

Didn't sell ..because I didn't buy

On the CBOT, you can sell first and then buy back to make a profit or loss. I sold some wheat for Dec 2010 a while back that looks good now---just have to figure out when to buy back and not get too greedy. If I don't goof up, I'm going to use that to counter a corn sale at the local elevator for $3.56 that doesn't look too good. :)

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