Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
fleebut

EIA 25 year forecast

Recommended Posts

Reading the forecast for light duty vehicle fuel supply out to 25 years, not good. Grain ethanol is flat and cellulosic just a meager bump up on already minimal production. This tells me they figure only corn kernel fiber cellulosic production will occur. The rest of the world will increase biofuel production, but the U.S. maintains a holding pattern. Alternative fuel will increase, but the stats include diesel in that mix. FLEX vehicles production flat and continue on at about 10% of vehicles. Alternative vehicles sales now 18% and by 2040 will grow to whopping 61%, but of that mix the micro hybrid will have 34%, This is the start stop technology so easily justified. Mild hybrids probably come in 2rd to this, but they didn't say. Diesel will become more popular within the market. Carbon batteries appear to be continue in popularity. Not much on the lithium or fully battery powered cars.  Gasoline consumption will drop dramatically down 2.3 million barrels per day and this is why ethanol has such a hard time increasing volumes. Gasoline and ethanol about the same price spread with gasoline inflating to $3.81/gallon (not bad). 

 

So, speculating what's going on here. No super premium ethanol fuel blend as that would  dramatically push ethanol fuel consumption up. Price of energy will be cheap and traditional ICE auto per value will maintain popularity. The vehicle will steadily improve efficiency and make battery car ownership or ethanol fuel less attractive. Diesel will be the choice for extra cash and lower fuel bills. No concern of fuel bill when your car gets 60+ MPG. GW fears abate as solutions to the problem fold in and no noticeable ramifications occur within weather as was so hyped up. Even if ethanol did go to negative carbon, in the future that may not be a highly desirable source of energy. GW concerns fade.

 

Also, one would have to contemplate if these numbers have deflation or stagnation cooked into the mix? The International economies are performing badly and some are comparing this time in history to post WWI economic malaise. Most predict anemic economic growth for decades due to national debts. Civil unrest will occur from poor as they can't gain and suffer the most. Government easy money rescue days are over. This is the best scenario, a slow steady slog to prevent melee. I think we will just float or bob about not knowing what to do and most will be to busy working to maintain status quo. Everyone will be looking for a victim to punish and deflect voter anger per finger pointing exercise. Lawsuits will be hunting for victims and business people will be looking to maximize what they already have and automate to decrease troublesome employees that complain and always demand more. I'm sure corporations will maximize political clout per advertising they are the good guys or supporting the political class. This is actually a good scenario as out boarding analysis have to include international inflation, deflation, civil unrest, and war per political need. Still a majority of people have better info, nowadays, and understand the political chicanery that will bring bad results. They can't as easily be fooled. Hopefully, examples such as Marcos or Chávez solutions fade with lessons learned.    

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The speculation below, still rings true. From my knowledge base of working in small international Corp. top executives, investment, engineering, and financial information, my personal take on 25 year out has a few known conclusions. First we are reliant upon international financial health. Meaning our economy is hooked to financial health of other countries. Were are not an island and must work to help or not deter financial well being of other large economies. Second there is no conspiracy of oil wealth and influence upon the country. Wealthy corporations have always had this influence. Nothing new here. Third, politicians even though they spew out partisan rhetoric for pubic consumption, all work to improve their own wealth and stay in power. They will not kill the milk cow as they have a great thing going. Even to the point of not caring of control or change. Meaning they only need to impress a slight majority of their constituency to stay in power. If they are exceptional in spin and deceit they win. It's actually easier to be within the minority party as it is easier to blame others and not work so hard. But, having said that, they are concerned of countries interests, they will work to make good decisions, but (unknown to us) they work much more either directly or indirectly with political opponents. They all hate disruption to the status quo as that will threaten their wealth and historical significance. I will name this the Milk Cow Theory. So, given this what's going on with ethanol? The petrol industry is in a big hurt. The industry massive ability to improve the countries wealth is sorely needed and needed more now than anytime in history. So, the movers and shakers upon gov't and business are directly or indirectly communicating that all parties need to understand their place. That disruption at this time in history is bad as the economic health for change is just not available. So, bio-fuel can stomp and complain of rigged markets, but the power brokers will make sure they can't disrupt the status quo. The best they can hope for and what has been planned for them, is minimal sustained growth. Since other countries are not so dependent upon oil wealth their bio fuel production will move at higher growth rates. All the U.S. elites will work together to minimize disruption, so petrol fuel will reign supreme. Politicians will attempt to appease all, with a modicum of support and silently empower the status quo. Sure, politicians offer lots of rhetoric, but actual work to make it happen goes to business as usual folks. If you want to be a power broker and improve your plight and finances in life, you better go along to get along. No disruptors need apply. This goes for Wall Street, Insurance Companies, politicians, and all the powerful players i.e. Google.  

 

Their is some value to main street for this. It's not the typical founding principles or the way gov't of the people are supposed to govern, but in serious threatening times, the voting public throws all wisdom out the window and grabs onto such solutions. Solutions that are sold to them and so easily believed.  History has a long record of the public wishing to avoid hurtful remedies and vote to keep the good times going. Business as usual, can maintain itself, until the majority get fed up or catch on. The best solution is always do this continually or at least upon a gradual ramp of change and not to demand it immediate. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...