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dan45mcc

CBOT Ethanol .. $3.25.. seriously $3.25 hell a bu of corn is just $4.90

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This is great, I am losing my desire to fight for the truth. There aren't enough companies like Carbon Green Bioenergy left that are doing ethanol the right way. The RFA is useless, complaining about the blend walls and that sort of stuff instead of trying to convince the millions of FFV owners to use E-85, or at least giving them a compelling reason to use it. (Compelling here meaning cost per mile). 

 

All the other rhetoric can be disproven. But nobody can convince anyone that expensive ethanol is what they should buy when gas is about the same. Not with today's engines anyway.

 

I still remain 100% committed to a new FFV as soon as possible, but what we see today will have to improve. I think ethanol needs to fix what's going on themselves this time.

 

I am going to write Dineen a letter :)

Edited by Steve-O

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So who do you think is actually setting the price? Just read this on DTN ethanol blog for Wednesday.

 

 

Ethanol prices turned lower Wednesday following the latest EIA report data which posted a strong bounce in ethanol inventories at the end of last week. Weekly inventory levels increased 2.5% or 16.5 million gallons in just one week. Total ethanol supplies are currently at 657.4 million gallons. This is still 10.3% under year-ago levels, and could help keep buyers aggressive going into the summer driving season.

 

Then this Friday

 

 

Spot ethanol prices traded sharply higher early Friday amid a continuing short squeeze, with a trade done for prompt delivered product at the Kinder Morgan-operated Argo terminal near Chicago at a new record high of $3.75 per gallon.

 

 

I think it's just good old American unreality just like the other markets. Gold goes up, gold goes down. Everything else does too.

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Dan, the bid for corn down at the ethanol plant is actually $4.62. Another i'm in is $4.47.  I'm doing good right now but it'll be interesting to see how the end of the year goes.

Edited by cessna

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This is some more BS. I remember not long ago the commodities broker saying there was no way beans could go up and they went up about $1.50 since he told me that. Now this.

 

It appears that overbooked Chinese soybean importers have diverted shipments to the United States, split between deliveries to the East Coast and the Gulf of Mexico.

 

Senior Analyst Darin Newsom said. "The result is an equally interesting coming and going of ships leaving port in the U.S. headed to China while at the same time, China may be redirecting some of its purchases from Brazil to the U.S."

http://www.dtnprogressivefarmer.com/dtnag/common/link.do?symbolicName=/ag/blogs/template1&blogHandle=grainmarkets&blogEntryId=8a82c0bc43a1ab8d0145056aa3350dd7

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I'm going to go on a little price run tomorrow and see what Stations in the surrounding Cities are doing.. see if Central Minnesota is stable as it is here in St Cloud...

 

 

Look at the Map and it the high CBOT ethanol prices do seem to be affecting just Stations East of the Mississippi.. 

 

post-2-0-24862900-1396139154_thumb.jpg

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KT is still 2.79 around here. If rail is the issue it makes sense that the price problem would be east of Chicago but I am confused by Argo (Chicago) being that high for prompt- there should be enough nearby ethanol plants to truck to Argo to fill eastern needs (especially if rail is constricted east).

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I don't get how the ethanol price HERE in Omaha (smack between the #1 and #2 producing states of Iowa and Nebraska) about the furthest distance from the main northeast consuming region that they are having difficulty getting "blending agents" shipped to can be so high.

 

According to MY economic reasoning of supply and demand...  HERE where we have a supply glut, and inability to ship out product... there should be an oversupply caused drop in the LOCAL price of ethanol.  Producers should be lowering the price they sell locally, simply to move product as they don't have enough storage capacity to keep storing until the time that the RR can resume normal operations.  In the meantime, they also need revenues to keep the plant running.

 

This whole "rail shipping problem to the Northeast" problem only works to justify high prices to blenders IN THE NORTHEAST...  Price jumps are caused by either a shortage of supply, or an increase in demand.  So in the northeast, due to their shortage of supply, they justifiably must raise prices.

 

Price drops are caused by either an oversupply, or a decrease in demand.

 

Here in the western mid-west, we are seeing BOTH of the last two.  We have an over supply locally, and the high price of ethanol is causing a decrease in demand.

 

This whole situation simply defies all known laws of economics, which means that someone is manipulating them to line their own pockets.  Those charged with informing the markets and protecting the markets are either to ignorant to notice, or to corrupt to care.

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