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whowey

The height of frustration

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I will admit that the absolutely horrendous spreads here have forced me back to running E10 in my own vehicles and my employers truck.

 

Also.. some of you know that my wife is an employee of the second largest fuel retailer in our area(Road Ranger is number one by a LARGE margin).  If you have crossed Illinois by either I-80, I-39, or I-90 you have passed one of their stations.

 

Well.. the owner of the company takes his senior employees and spouses out for dinner this time of the year.  He discusses the past year and some of his plans for the future.  He is very open even with those of us not in the company.  I spent about an hour chewing his ear off a couple years ago about only having a handful of bio fuel outlets(4 at the time) in his portfolio of stations.  He actually took the time to explain to me their process on whether to install E85 dispensers or not.  The costs he quoted for just the above ground equipment and system programming really surprised me.

 

My wife knows how cranky I have been about the awful spreads the last month(6-7%)..  She banned me from mentioning them to him.  She said he remembers the conversation with me about the dispensers and still brings it up at times.

 

So.. here I will be tonight sitting with a person who really does have the ability to change the retail price point, distribution and usage of E85 and I'm not allowed to mention it...

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I've been reading some other sites and it really doesn't sound good for E85.  I am surprised that they didn't get a provision in to get E85 classified (tax wise) as an alternative fuel like LPG, Methanol, etc.. etc are.  Let's at LEAST put it on same ground as other Alternative fuels!

 

There's a TON of Ethanol in Reserves right now, and not a lot of purchasers.  That's going to drive down the price but it's going to be short lived if the Ethanol producers get killed in the process.   

 

2012 is going to be a very interesting year.  Like you, I've switched back to E10 in my vehicles.  I'm hoping things come back around next month so I can go back to E85!

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I'm seeing 10-20% in ND, but the 20% was in November. It'd have to be consistently under 10% for me to change, then I'd probably do E30.

 

We'll see what next year brings tho. When my wife can't work and we have to let the house go, that might change my mind. At least I'd be driving a lot less then.  ;D

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Everyone needs to do what they need to do..but just so we are clear..it isn't (for the most part) the retailer as is simply (yes I'll  beat a dead horse again) E10.. over production of the additive blends that drove corn prices high that drove ethanol high.. that screwed up the E85 price spread..we had ethanol at the same price and even more expensive than gasoline at the Commodity Market these past few months.. there is no way the retailer can offer a 15%+ spread under those circumstances

 

The Ethanol Industry produced 1.6 BILLION Gallons more than required by law..they even exported 1 billion gallons ..hows that for a slap in the face to E85. 

 

Absolutely no regard to those that support ethanol as an alternative fuel..to the ethanol Industry.corn lobby it's all about Cashing in on Volume..it's an additive business..not an alternative fuel business.

 

The Good news at least short term is that the speculators appear to be moving money out of ethanol as the VEETC expiration approaches and the price of ethanol as a commodity is falling..I think we will see spreads at least level off and actually widen in some regions (short term anyways)..  and corn does only have 1 billion gallons left on the RFS  (Corn can only produce 15 billion gallons)

 

I just hope you all will stand up a fight against Corn Lobby  this coming year as they will ..oh you can bet on it that they will be Lobbying Congress to allow them to produce more than the RFS limit of 15 billion.

 

Stopping them at 15 billion gallons should suck rest of the corn speculators out of the market and lower the prices... and keep supporting all the new feedstocks.. MSW  and cellulosic material.

 

 

 

post-1-138947093871_thumb.png

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Look at that Chart and remember it in the coming months when you hear the RFA and Corn Lobby saying the loss of the VEETC was terrible for E85.. you can smell their BS a mile away because we still have the VEETC and the price spread has been "terrible" all year..

 

 

E10 and Exports is what is killing E85 ..not the VEETC

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I also think there will be less speculation after the MF Global mess. Listening to  U.S. Farm Report this morning, a couple of commodity brokers think there will be a lot more new rules. Will be interesting to see what happens when Greece and the other problem countries finally go under also.

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Speculation in the corn market by hedge funds had nothing to do with it? ???

 

 

Sure..

 

 

 

 

Speculation is due to the tight corn market..due to MOSTLY high demand for corn to make 14 billion gallons of ethanol..AND bad weather in some areas of the Country

 

 

speculators didn't run up the price of corn for kicks ...corn surpluses were at historical low levels this year ..as low as 3 week supply...a decade ago we had a 3 month surplus.

 

 

 

 

3 week supply of corn is NOT a surplus..it is a warning

 

 

 

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as low as 3 week supply

I don't really believe that. I think there was a little propaganda in that. Just like wheat was over $9 last spring and look at it now, the world is swimming in wheat. USDA with their predictions is just another marketing tool to move markets one way or another. They're very unreliable in my opinion.

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