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AzDragonLord

e85 prices not droppng

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I was surprised to see that some Poet plants in Ohio and Indiana are bidding $1 a bushel over CBOT price to get corn right now-----as of yesterday afternoon the bid was $7.75 to $7.85. That's pretty high.

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that is awfully high...  I wonder what is up over there?  I never quite understood how these plant did their buying of grain...  You'd like to have contracts locked in for delivery... but would hate to be stuck with a bunch of expensive grain contracted WHEN the prices collapse the next time...

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I was surprised to see that some Poet plants in Ohio and Indiana are bidding $1 a bushel over CBOT price to get corn right now-----as of yesterday afternoon the bid was $7.75 to $7.85. That's pretty high.

 

 

 

 

What do you think cessna..?

 

 

What are they thinking?

 

 

 

 

All indications are that the VEETC gets cancelled ..sooner than later ..which in turns means a huge drop in ethanol production and need for corn.. There simply is no reason that Oil is going to continue to blend above the required 12.5 billion gallons ..so that means the "surplus" production of 1.2-1.4 billion gallons stops ..almost immediately and corn drops like a rock

 

 

So they are betting on?

 

 

1. The VEETC wont end until end of year (instead of end of July..) after harvest (which would mean a continuing "pressure" on corn as ethanol produces and Oil blenders as much as possible to get the remaining VEETC

 

 

2. Poet is thinking the harvest will be far worse than anyone else

 

 

3. That China/India and other exports orders will be higher than expected ?

 

 

Some other variable that's flying over my head ?

 

 

I could see some  variant of #1 .. because of the delay in getting a debt deal done..the VEETC bill gets set to the side and doesnt get included in any bill or voted on for another month or so  ..  so a another 30-60 stay of execution simply will push corn higher

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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I think they see a short supply of corn coming this fall. Also, I wonder if they have some business partners with a really good crystal ball. Remember, there is money to be made when corn goes up and down.

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I've committed myself to buy e85 as long as they are still selling it, no matter the price.  It is the right thing to do.  I would like to continue to reward those stations that have committed themselves to e85 and have always done well by me with their prices in the past.  They've been loyal and honest by me, so I could do the same by them.

I'm with you here Husker! No matter what the price spread even if the spread gets upside down. It is the best thing for the environment, the engine, the military and the economy! Why punish the retailers that get it and typically keep a good price. What the market and govt. is doing they cant help it.

Even if I have to change my oil because of the acid breaking down the package from E85, the interval is still the same using the dyno crap when it turns to thick black gunk and doesn't flow as well. Oil analysis sounds great but the expense to analyze oil is about the same cost to change the oil. When the results come in, they recommend changing oil anyway so why bother with sending it in? Ive seen recommendations for different oil based on the parent owner of the company. Who cares what brand it is? All oil companies are doing the same thing. Some just worse than others.

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You all bring up good points...this makes it hard for me to justify returning to gasoline for $$ sake.  I do believe in supporting the ethanol industry so they can advance the technology and make the process more efficient, along with the environmental reasons stated. As someone said before...no soldiers need to die defending our corn fields!

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I will say this again- VEETC has nothing to do with it right now- ethanol is lower priced than gasoline without even the tax credit and refiners are using it to the max now that all the infrastructure is in place to make this possible. Brazil has no extra ethanol to ship in due to yet another year of poor investment climate to put in the crop and poor weather to boot. Alternative feedstock plants for the USA are not in place yet enough to affect the overall supply. And corn carryover is low. Ethanol is high right now solely because corn supplies are tight and with China's water problem and growing economy they are buying corn. So for now- if corn is high- ethanol will be too as plants are just scraping by from a profit standpoint and many will be in the slow down efficient mode rather than all out production mode. (there is a plant for sale now in NW Wisconsin (Boyceville)).

 

Given the above- without a huge corn crop to boost production- lower ethanol prices to make E85 spreads wide would just mean oil refiners would eek out even more 10% blend and do it more cheaply benefiting no one- they would more than sop up the extra and the ethanol price would go right back to where it is until ethanol plants can produce more product and more cheaply to truly flood the market. But then-- Brazil will just buy it until they get back on their feet.

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