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dan45mcc

Preditions for 2011 , E85, Ethanol, FFv's ..make your prediction

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My crystal ball sees:

-gasoline (E10/E0) remaining over $3.15 (local current price) for 2011 due how easy wild world events and government policies can effect the market price

-corn prices dropping as it did a few years ago to enable price spreads of 25% .  It is likely import ethanol tariffs are going to be further reduced via governmental policies.  Thus, downward pressure on corn prices and ethanol costs.

 

Hope this works out to the benefit of the consumer.

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We may have discovered why corn futures pushed so high. Basic economics of supply demand still in play with foreign demand playing havoc. Our recession has delayed the inevitable, but nontheless $5 gas easily on horizon. John Hofmeister predictions may be accurate of summer fuel $5/gallon. Animal feed better reset for high price of corn and minimize the use. Agriculture should max corn production for highest roi.

 

Pulling the Blender Credit away from the fuel hubs and utilize to stimulate blender pump installs a smart move. No need to utilize the Blenders Credit for lower cost of fuel. Lack of petrol supply will make it attractive on its own. Ethanol should be upon a separate tank....away from oil control.

   

Federal Reserve has demonstrated that they tend to be well behind the curve, so I am not holding my breath that they will be proactive in keeping inflation at bay.

 

China’s oil imports will triple by 2030.  Between now and then, China’s oil demand is expected to grow by nearly 4% per year.

 

$5 gas in the U.S. is because I think we’re about to enter a hyper-inflationary period.

 

The average price in the UK is now £5 a gallon – almost exactly $8

 

We consume 20, produce 7, and soon to be 6.

 

Environmentalist work to hobble petrol to produce higher costs, i.e. Gulf Drilling. 

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Soon reality will hit as expensive fuel will not much improve Volt sales. Small efficient autos and ethanol will be on top of consumer wish list. Solutions that have a immediate effect and not break the bank. Small less expensive battery car will maintain popularity upon short distance metro market. Penske will benefit.

 

Volt sales anemic and the project deemed a mistake. The $7k gov’t rebate should be pulled….note the nation is broke, without legitimate revenue. Volts low battery mileage capability, the hassle factor, large center line intrusion upon cabin space, cost, and the fact gasoline mpg not good despite EPA labeling, most will shy away from purchase and payments. All, but rich California environmentalist will walk when educating themselves of cost of money vs fuel. When $5/gallon fuel arrives consumers will rush to small Kia imports that are rated good for repairs, mileage, and cost of purchase. If you are lucky enough to have money to burn, well Volt or not; not much concern of fuel costs. Getting attention probably the motivator.

 

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  The attacks on Ethanol such as the destroy engine myths along with the food vs fuel myth have picked up dramatically.  Big Oil is scared and doesn't want the public looking into Alternatives during this trip to $4.00 gasoline again.  The difference is this time the output of oil can't match what the world is using.  Gas pricing is quickly approaching the point in which the general public starts looking.  I predict a repeat of a few years ago.  Hopefully the ethanol companies can take advantage of this a see a large influx of Venture Capitalists.

 

  I also look forward to a major increase in customers wanting to convert to Flex Fuel.

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1. As much as I prefer alcohol internal combustion over electric drive, let's face it...the Volt is downright cool. People get caught up in knitpicking it to death. But for most people, if they replace their run of the mill sedan with a  :rstar: VOLT :bstar:, and continue to go about their normal lives, are going to buy al least 70% less petroleum than they bought before. Bottom line. Every one that is put on the road will help the country a miniscule amount. However, my brother has a gargantuan container of pennies that has over $1200 in it and weighs darn near as much as I do! And I am above the curve average unfortunately :). It takes two strong dudes to lift this container of tiny one cent pieces so these volts will add up to some good.

 

2. More of the EXISTING FFV owners embrace e-85. Unfortunately, not enough of them. 2011 will not be the breakthrough year for E-85. But at least E-85 usage will go up.

 

3. We have to have more FFVs. Will we?  I certainly hope so. Are we even getting one new model a year any more?

 

4. It WILL be an interesting year to watch ethanol, especially with all the hooey about oil [prices back in the spotlight.

 

5. I have no excuse not to drive an FFV before the year is out :)

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1) high gas prices

 

2) a record year for E85 pump installs

 

3) I don't keep up a lot on FFV models but I know the 2012 Focus which coming out next year is supposed to be E85 capable. I think that could prove significant because unless there is another model I have missed it will be the first of the low cost, high volume models to be E85 capable. That could really help to raise awareness of E85 and help counter the old image that building E85 cars was just a way for manufacturers to get around CAFE rules.

 

4) since the VEETC extension was for only one year, the debate on whether to transition the VEETC over to something like the Growth Energy plan will take place some time next year.

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Update on the two most anticipated new FFV models from each company's official site:

 

Buick official website for the 2011 Regal: Still no mention of Flex Fuel

 

Ford official website for 2012 Focus: Flex Fuel IS mentioned, says "Late Availability"

 

Ford, I'll believe it when I see it.

GM, get with the program please.

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Buick official website for the 2011 Regal: Still no mention of Flex Fuel

I think that says a lot. I don't think much will change in the ethanol industry. I'm in four different plants and each one operates with as much secrecy as possible so I don't see much of a grouping together to change anything happening. Just like you can't get farmers to organize. The end of the year will be here before we know it.

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