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  1. Reading the forecast for light duty vehicle fuel supply out to 25 years, not good. Grain ethanol is flat and cellulosic just a meager bump up on already minimal production. This tells me they figure only corn kernel fiber cellulosic production will occur. The rest of the world will increase biofuel production, but the U.S. maintains a holding pattern. Alternative fuel will increase, but the stats include diesel in that mix. FLEX vehicles production flat and continue on at about 10% of vehicles. Alternative vehicles sales now 18% and by 2040 will grow to whopping 61%, but of that mix the micro hybrid will have 34%, This is the start stop technology so easily justified. Mild hybrids probably come in 2rd to this, but they didn't say. Diesel will become more popular within the market. Carbon batteries appear to be continue in popularity. Not much on the lithium or fully battery powered cars. Gasoline consumption will drop dramatically down 2.3 million barrels per day and this is why ethanol has such a hard time increasing volumes. Gasoline and ethanol about the same price spread with gasoline inflating to $3.81/gallon (not bad). So, speculating what's going on here. No super premium ethanol fuel blend as that would dramatically push ethanol fuel consumption up. Price of energy will be cheap and traditional ICE auto per value will maintain popularity. The vehicle will steadily improve efficiency and make battery car ownership or ethanol fuel less attractive. Diesel will be the choice for extra cash and lower fuel bills. No concern of fuel bill when your car gets 60+ MPG. GW fears abate as solutions to the problem fold in and no noticeable ramifications occur within weather as was so hyped up. Even if ethanol did go to negative carbon, in the future that may not be a highly desirable source of energy. GW concerns fade. Also, one would have to contemplate if these numbers have deflation or stagnation cooked into the mix? The International economies are performing badly and some are comparing this time in history to post WWI economic malaise. Most predict anemic economic growth for decades due to national debts. Civil unrest will occur from poor as they can't gain and suffer the most. Government easy money rescue days are over. This is the best scenario, a slow steady slog to prevent melee. I think we will just float or bob about not knowing what to do and most will be to busy working to maintain status quo. Everyone will be looking for a victim to punish and deflect voter anger per finger pointing exercise. Lawsuits will be hunting for victims and business people will be looking to maximize what they already have and automate to decrease troublesome employees that complain and always demand more. I'm sure corporations will maximize political clout per advertising they are the good guys or supporting the political class. This is actually a good scenario as out boarding analysis have to include international inflation, deflation, civil unrest, and war per political need. Still a majority of people have better info, nowadays, and understand the political chicanery that will bring bad results. They can't as easily be fooled. Hopefully, examples such as Marcos or Chávez solutions fade with lessons learned.
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