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Everything posted by Rack

  1. https://twitter.com/CSPmagazine/status/1173661600756244482 Interesting little seminar on E15 pricing vs. E10 and various E15 concerns. I like how my local Family Express chooses to just ignore all of it and try something different (for them): pricing E10 and E15 exactly the same, to the penny. I've seen the 5 cent spread, the 2 cents spread, the 3 cent spread (I think), even the 10 cent spread down in Indy, but never the 0 cent spread. I'll spoil the seminar for you, out of all the spreads tested (0 cents, 3 cents, 5 cents, 7 cents, 10 cents) the 0 cent spread had the worst outcome in sales. Same E15 sales, less E10 sales. Anyway, looks like I'll be sticking to E10 for the foreseeable future.
  2. Picked up some E15 before September 15th, just in case winter blends come sooner rather than later, a mere $2.249 a gallon with perks card. That's like saving a virtual penny per gallon over E10 in energy/miles per dollar if there's a 5 cent spread! It's been a month or so, but the data from GasBuddy isn't always so good on E15 prices. There's a station near here that sells their E15 at 5 cents less than E10 pretty reliably. For the past few days in the GasBuddy app, the E15 price has been 50 cents more than I would deduce it to be based on E10 prices. The E15 price in the app just happens to be the price of the diesel the station also sells. E15 is labeled as Regular 88 at that station (Family Express). Maybe recognition of what Regular 88 actually is is still filtering out slowly. The E15 price was even 2 cents lower than the E85 price. So much energy per dollar!
  3. #4 GPS update: Casey's 105 W Union St, Waterloo, IN 46793 https://www.google.com/maps/place/Casey's/@41.4332003,-85.0203289,136m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m5!3m4!1s0x88161f202906a7cb:0x79c5f67c51ed4eaf!8m2!3d41.433048!4d-85.0203039 41.433019, -85.020351
  4. Aw, shucky ducky! This UNL88 stuff might be going mainstream! I opened up the GasBuddy app today, and today I noticed there was a place to put in a UNL88/E15 price at for my local Family Express. You can even search by UNL88 stations, though there are not many at all listed and I had to go and add a fuel for a couple of stations around here that do indeed carry E15. Exciting times!
  5. #3 GPS update: Speedway 15801 W Commerce Rd, Daleville, IN 47334 https://www.google.com/maps/place/Speedway/@40.1135928,-85.5727043,135m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m5!3m4!1s0x881527106b823515:0x92a35cd92c8943ef!8m2!3d40.1136205!4d-85.5723844 40.113617, -85.572364
  6. #2 GPS update: Speedway Address: 1691 E Commercial Ave, Lowell, Indiana https://www.google.com/maps/place/Speedway/@41.2902667,-87.4019764,198m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m5!3m4!1s0x8811f84a9bd19edd:0x9158940117c79862!8m2!3d41.290199!4d-87.4015832 41.290094, -87.401617
  7. I'm just going to put all the GPS coordinates and deletion requests in this thread here. #1 Deletion: Wilco Address: 2080 E Commercial Ave, Lowell, Indiana I don't think this station is around anymore, it's probably been about 9 years since the Wilco grocery store was bought out by Strack and Van Til's, and it looks like it was somewhere near that time that the fuel pumps were removed, at least according to aerial images in Google Earth's Historical Imagery. Looks like the station was only around for 3 years. It's a parking lot now.
  8. It doesn't seem to have a latitude and longitude assigned to it in the database, as the pin for the station is on the Equator and Prime Meridian on the map. Here's a link to a map and approximate coordinates: https://www.google.com/maps/place/403+E+8th+St,+Overbrook,+KS+66524/@38.7819882,-95.5524486,410m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m5!3m4!1s0x87bf3caf8a4a1c21:0x51d2213a0aa495d5!8m2!3d38.7820405!4d-95.5513386 38.781936, -95.551367
  9. Casey's in Crown Point changed their E10 - E15 spread now that regular is up at $3.149. Now it's down to 4 cents from 5 cents. Maybe one day I can buy E15 and get more miles for fewer dollars. I think 5 cents is about the biggest spread I've seen around here, and that isn't worth buying if E10 is more than $2.849 or so. I guess I'll have to wait for the fall when prices go down again.
  10. Prices starting to rise in the Calumet Region, Family Express pushing $3.199 per gallon of E10. That means E15 with a 2 cent discount still isn't worth buying. E15 with even an 5 cent discount isn't worth buying, we're into 5.5 cent discount range (which I doubt I will see, all prices end in 9. I saw 70% E85 at 1.840 once, probably a typo). I guess I could bust out my formula, and get the exact break-even discount, but is there a quick estimate I could use instead? I think I've thought of one. As a bonus, you can use it for my favorite miles per dollar challenge, the IBEC ethanol pump: http://www.ibecethanol.com/ Ethanol/E100 has about 2/3 of the energy of pure gasoline/E0. This is the same as 40/60 (just multiply by 1 or 20/20). Put it another way, your gallon of pure gasoline has 60 units of energy. Pure ethanol, 40 units. So 5% or 1/20 of a gallon of E0 has 3 units, and 5% or 1/20 of a gallon of E100 has 2 units. What about E10? 2 of those 20 3 unit E0 sections are now 2 unit E100 sections, one less unit of energy per ethanol unit. 60 - 2 is 58. E15 would have 3 units swapped from gas to ethanol, so 3 fewer units, 57. So you'd want your E15 to cost 57/58 the price of E10. $3.199 *(57/58) is $3.144, or 5.5 cents less than the E10 price, fairly close, I think! And the IBEC challenge? The goal is the minimize dollars spent per unit of fuel energy. E15 has 57 units, E30 has 54 units, E50 has 50 units (halfway between 40 and 60, seems right!) and E85 would have a mere 43 units. Now it's just division. 2.699/57 is 4.74 cents per unit, 2.499/54 is 4.63 cents per unit, 2.299/50 is 4.60 cents per unit and 1.849/43 is 4.30 cents per unit. E85 wins!
  11. https://www.hoosieragtoday.com/epa-allows-year-round-sales-e15/ Now if only there were more price-competitive places to buy E15 around here versus E10. I think I have just one Casey's that has E15 at 5 cents less than regular. Family Express switched to 2 cent or 3 cent spreads on E15 at all the stations I've been by recently. They are pushing E15 as the new normal fuel, the E15 price being the only price on single-price signs, etc.
  12. Jumped the gun there, the Griffith East Family Express had their open house this week on Tuesday and Wednesday, and finally opened for real yesterday/Thursday. I don't expect prices to be low there since Family Express raised all prices chain-wide on Monday to $2.699 for E10 and $2.099 for flex-fuel/E85, which I think is 70% this time of year. E15 prices they are still experimenting with, sometime 2 cents less, sometimes 5 cents less. Sometimes E10 is their "base" price at $2.699, sometimes E15 is their base price pushing E10 to $2.719. I did swing by the open house for the free food at least and they do sell E15 as Regular 88: Family Express pump at Griffith East Casey's flex-fuel was $1.849, which was the best deal I could find in the area, their E15 is prices at 5 cents below E10, as always.
  13. Finally seeing prices from the Griffith Family Express, I think it's actually open now!: http://www.garygasprices.com/Family_Express_Gas_Stations/Griffith/198316/index.aspx Looks like E10 is priced 25 cents less than midgrade, and 50 cents less than premium, which implies that E15 is 5 cents less than E10. Other FE stations price their E15 instead at 25 cents less than midgrade and 50 cents below premium, with their E10 +2 cents more than E15. With the perks card 10 cent grand opening discount, that puts E15 down at 1.94, which is slightly better than 1.98 E10 in BTU/dollar. Lowest price in the region for E10 is 1.99, might be time to buy some E15 again!
  14. Yep, 5 cents! Most Family Express stations have a 5 cent spread. I think there's one in Indy with a 10 cent spread, even my Saint John location was at a 5 cent spread when it opened. The Casey's maintains a 5 cent spread, as does the Murphy's in the area. I'm seeing more and more FE spots doing the 2 cent spread, and as the prices are set at corporate, it must be some sort of price experiment. The Thornton's stations in the area are also going with a 2 cent spread.
  15. Another couple of E15 stations opened here in the past few days, both Family Video locations turned into Family Express spots, and one of the stores is selling E10 at $1.819. With the usual FE Grand Opening 10 cent per gallon discount, that pushes the price down to $1.719. Another couple of cents lower and a 3 cent discount for E15 would be energy-neutral. I will have to swing by and check what the spread is, it could be 5 cents, but it could be 2 cents, Family Express has been known to do both. My local E15 station is the Family Express in Saint John. They only have the Regular 88/E15 price on their big LED sign, and seemingly are basing their midgrade and premium prices off of their E15 price (+25 cents, +50 cents), and then pricing E10 2 cents more than E15. They are trying hard to make E15 "happen". It'd happen faster if they'd price it correctly!
  16. Well, it's deep into winter blend season, and prices on E10 are low enough that even at 4 cents less, you'd be better off buying E15. So my local Family Express reduced the spread to 2 cents between E10 and E15. More E10 for me, $2.189 a gallon with perks card!
  17. 20 cent spread down to 10 cents at Indiana Speedways, could we see price parity soon? Meanwhile IBEC down in Rensselaer is selling E85 for $1.499 a gallon. I wonder if it's actually 85% ethanol these days, it is mighty cold out!
  18. 30 cent Indiana Speedway spreads down to 20 cents with E10 at $2.459, and my local Family Express is going with a 2 cent spread on E10 and E15. More E10 for me! Illinois Speedways are down to a 50 cent spread, would have to check if it's worth buying at 70% ethanol/volatility class 3, since it's November.
  19. 40 cent spreads at Indiana Speedways down to 30 cents with E10 at $2.49 a gallon. How low can gas go!
  20. E10 prices so low, Indiana Speedways are adjusting again! The 50 cent difference is down to 40 cents. They just don't want to sell that E85 for cheaps. I also posted on my math on E15/E10 BTU numbers here: http://e85vehicles.com/e85/index.php?/topic/7196-unleaded-88-coming-your-way/&tab=comments#comment-46603
  21. From the last line: E10price = $0.05*(111836/1973) = $2.834 It's the price difference and the energy difference that sets the break-even price. If the price difference was 6 cents, it would be: E10price = $0.06*(111836/1973) = $3.401 making E15 a better deal just about everywhere. If it was 4 cents, it would be: E10price = $0.04*(111836/1973) = $2.267 Which is hard to find anywhere these days. It seems that E15 at a nickel less per gallon is priced exactly where it should be, to offer a (slightly) better deal on BTU/dollar, encouraging purchase and use. It'd be a much better deal at 6 cents; you'd have to find a reason not to use E15 at that price spread!
  22. When should you buy E15? Depends on your metric! I try to go for miles per dollar, or cheapest GGE. So how do you figure that out? Assume that you'll get nothing out of the extra octane (though you might get better mileage from better timing/less anti-knock retardation), and just focus on the energy content. We'll need to figure that out. I like in Lake County, IN, which is just outside Chicago. That's important because that means the gasoline is reformulated, so the energy content is slightly different. Wikipedia lists the energy content of a gallon of RFE10 at 111,836 BTU. A gallon of pure ethanol, E100, is listed at 76330BTU/gallon on energy.gov. So far, so good! So how much would a gallon of E15 have? Well, it's part E10 and part E100, let's find out how much of each. E10 is 9 parts gasoline to 1 part ethanol. E15 is 85% gasoline. So the E10's amount's gasoline will be the 85% part and the remaining ethanol in the E10 will be 1/9 of that amount. 85*(10/9) makes 94 4/9 percent E10. Add 5 5/9 percent E100 and that will make up all 100% of the E15 mixture. 111,836*.944444 + 76330*.055555 is 109,863BTU/gal. Around here, E15 is usually 5 cents less a gallon than E10. So at what prices per gallon is the energy content per dollar equal? Or at what prices will your $20 of E15 have the same BTUs and propel you the same distance as your $20 of E10? E15price*E15gallons=E10price*E10gallons E15price = E10price - $0.05 109863*E15gallons =111836*E10gallons or E15gallons = (111836/109863)*E10gallons (E10price - $0.05)*(111836/109863)*E10gallons = E10price*E10gallons A=(111836/109863) (E10price - $0.05)*A = E10price A*E10price - E10price = $0.05A E10price(A-1) = $0.05A A - 1 = 1973/109863 E10price = $0.05*(111836/109863)*(109863/1973) E10price = $0.05*(111836/1973) = $2.834 Okay! So at an E10 price of $2.834 a gallon, and an E15 price of $2.784 a gallon, you will get an equal amount of energy per dollar. If the E10 price is lower than $2.834, you should buy E15 if the difference between the two is 5 cents (a very common spread around here). That makes sense, since if E10 were $0.10 and E15 were $0.05, you'd get twice as many E15 gallons and energy than E10.
  23. Those little gas cards went on an adventure! Half arrived just fine, but the other half (like the ones I won on June 20 and July 2) were misaddressed, and instead of returning to Kelsey in St. Louis were returned-to-sender to Washington DC. I think mine went up to Michigan (instead of Indiana) before ending up in DC. Tracking numbers are wonderful!
  24. I was checking prices recently, and saw something unusual. Yesterday, E10 prices took a dip, and I checked my BTU numbers. If my numbers are good, E15 is a better buy at under $2.824 if there's a fixed 5 cent difference. With E10 at $2.599 around here, that puts E15 in the better buy category. That didn't push E85 prices down like I thought, though. Family Express doesn't go by fixed difference pricing on E85. So it's still the same $2.099. What about stations like Speedway with a fixed spread? 60 in Indiana, 80 in Illinois, right? Well, that held, for like 1 day. Then they realized that they were selling E85 for $1.759 a gallon in Illinois, so they just changed all the spreads. 80 cents dropped to 60 cents in IL for the most part. 60 cent spreads in Indiana became 50 cents. So if you're in a fixed-spread area, you have to watch for price spikes *and* dips. Just one more thing to look out for.
  25. https://www.cspdailynews.com/fuels-news-prices-analysis/fuels-news/articles/which-retailers-passed-failed-e15-e85?page=0%2C1 Just relinking the story in question. If you caught this article: http://www.ethanolproducer.com/articles/15498/on-the-brandwagon you might have noticed Casey's General Store in there, saying that they had 40 E15 stations and 10 to 15 on the way. I looked around for them, and added 10 of them to E85prices myself yesterday. A lot of them were only months or even weeks old, and every single one of them also sold E85. Given that Casey's has about 2000 locations, 40 would be a solid 2% and putting them on the way to 2.5%-2.75% of their locations selling E15, and likely will sell E85 as well. 2%, that's a D+ on the scale, working on a C-! Anyway, chains that were getting Fs on this report cards are definitely bringing up their grades, although in a roundabout away for us E85 lovers. E15 seems to be the skinny edge of the wedge. Once Unleaded 88 takes off, it's not too far a leap to go to Unleaded 95 to meet the possible 95 RON standard (nevermind that the 88 in Unleaded 88 is .5*(R+M) and not RON, the branding will smooth all that over!). How much ethanol will it have? Beats me, E25-ish, somewhere around there. I'm sure all those European cars designed for 95 RON will love it, though. And that is a big market.
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